Engineering
Mathematics
Conditional Probability
Question

A biased coin with probability p, 0 < p < 1, of heads is tossed until a head appears for the first time. If the probability that the number of tosses required is even is 2/5, then p =........

2/5

2/3

1/3

3/5

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Solution
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Let X denote the number of tosses required.
Then P(x = r) = (1 − P)r − 1 P; r = 1, 2, 3....

Let E denote the event that the number of tosses required is even. Then,

P(E) = P{(x = 2) U (x = 4) U (x = 6) U...}

= P(x = 2) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 6) +....

= p(1 − p) + p(1 − p)3 + p(1 − p)5 +..

=p(1p)1(1p)2=P(1p)2Pp2=1p2p

As we are given that P(E)=25, we get

5(1 – p) = 2(2 – p) 

⇒ 1 – 3p = 0

⇒ P=13

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